American dependency on Oil

I'm sure you're tired of reading about it and talking about it. If so, leave now. For those of you still here, I'm going to state my views on the whole oil thing.

Awhile back I went to the Glenn Beck simulcast at the movie theatre. I think Tam went to it, too. Good stuff.

One thing that Beck talked about was drilling in ANWAR. They're drilling there, apparently. For ice. Not for oil.

This has Beck furious. He's gung-ho about drilling in America, especially ANWAR.

Bad idea, imo.

A few nights later, my brother and his friends had a get together, and I showed up. We got to talking about the simulcast, and someone mentioned that this Jindal guy was planning on drilling in Louisiana somewhere. Everyone immediately filled up their shotglasses and threw up a toast to Jindal.

I sort of quietly said "I think it's a bad idea."

The entire room got silent and they looked at me.

"What?" my brother's boss, Charlie, said.

"I think it's a bad idea. I think gas prices should keep going up."

He wasn't a happy camper. I don't blame him.

Believe me, I don't want to keep paying $4, $5 per gallon. I'd love to go back to 75 cents per gallon like when I first started driving. That'd be wonderful.

But drilling isn't the answer.

"Why?" Charlie asked.

"Because drilling anywhere will give Americans hope."

"Hope for what?"

"Lower gas prices."

"What's wrong with that?"

"If America starts thinking the gas prices are going to go back down, we'll have no reason to switch to another type of vehicle."

Charlie and the others stared at me for another moment, then Charlie answered.

"Then you're forcing everyone to switch to something else. Fuck that. I want a choice."

I shook my head sadly.

"You don't have a choice right now," I said.

He said "Sure I do."

No, my friend, you don't.

Right now, America is dependent on oil for transportation. There are no alternatives. None at all.

Yes, the technology is there. Yes, there are a handful of cities that have hydrogen-fuel cell stations, or electric stations, or whatnot. Apparently, there are three hydrogen stations in Atlanta.

But that's not good enough.

I can't walk down the street and buy a hydrogen-powered car and drive it everywhere I want to go. It's not feasible. What if I want to drive to Birmingham, AL? I can't. No fuel stations along the way, and as far as I know, there aren't any in Birmingham.

And let's face it. Every oil powered car you buy increases our dependency on oil for another decade.

Charlie shook his head and said, "How much would it cost to switch everyone over to hydrogen or natural gas or whatever?"

"Millions, if not billions, of dollars."

"That's right. And how long would it take?"

I shrugged. "Five, ten years, at the rate it's going now."

"Exactly!" he crowed, proud at his logic.

"But," I said. "if prices go down, that rate's going to slow down. It takes demand to raise production of those things. It takes demand to get those cars and fuel stations out on the road. And for every dime the gas prices go down, Americans are that much less likely to switch or demand to switch."

Right now, gas prices are inconvenient. They're not truly painful. People tighten up their belts, they eat out less, they make fewer trips to the store. They save a little bit of money that way. But it's not truly painful. It's just inconvenient.

People aren't willing to lower their standards of living to compensate for gas prices. So they just cut back. They keep the same cars, the same houses. They keep eating at the same restaurants, go out to the same theaters and concerts. They just do it less. It's inconvenient, but it's not painful.

When gas prices go up to the point where you literally cannot make it to the store by yourself, when you literally can't afford to eat out ever, when you've got no choice but to find an alternative... then it becomes painful.

Most of us know someone who's lost a lot of weight. Most of those people did it through sheer force of will. But that will wouldn't be there if there weren't consequences for not losing weight. Why did they lose weight?

They lost weight because if they didn't, something painful, something catastrophic would happen: they would get diabetes, have heart failure, liver failure,... death.

It was an all-or-nothing situation. They HAD to lose weight... or they'd lose everything.

And that's the point that we have to reach in America. We have to reach that tipping point, that point of no return, where gas prices are so high that we literally can't afford to keep up that activity anymore.

Once gas prices hit six, seven dollars a gallon, things will start changing a lot faster.

Hydrogen stations will come in a lot faster. Two to three years, instead of five to ten. It might cost a little bit more, but in the end it will wind up saving money.

Right now, there are no alternatives. There are no choices.

Charlie wants to have a choice. I do, too. But right now there isn't one. And progress on those fronts are moving too slowly. Five to ten years is not enough.

And if during that time, the government announces they're going to drill in America, then interest in alternative fuel technology is going to drop like a brick in a well.

So don't drill. Let the gas prices go up. Tighten your belts. Stop by car dealerships and mention you're interested in a hydrogen fuel-cell car, a natural-gas car, an electric car. Let everyone know that we need alternatives, and we need them now.

And what's truly ironic about the whole thing is that once we develop viable alternatives and people start switching to hydrogen, natural gas or electric cars... once that happens, gas prices will plummet. The demand won't be there to sustain such high prices.

But I feel it's better to have two, three, four alternatives than to have no choice at all.

When you've got hydrogen, natural gas, oil and electricity competing to power your cars, the power leaves the fuel company's hands and enters your own. YOU have the power to decide. YOU have the power to determine the prices. Maybe not individually, but as a consumer.

Prices for all four will drop like a wet cat out of a window, because they'll have to compete.

The oil companies don't have to compete right now. There's nowhere else we can go. But the minute we can say "I'm taking my dollar elsewhere"... then we can change this.

Don't drill in America. Don't increase imports of oil. Don't give Americans false hope.

Reducing prices now will only postpone the inevitable.

Suck it up.
Develop alternatives.
Give us what we Americans should already have.
Freedom.
The freedom to choose.